Mostradomus in Review

  • Jameson Williams

    Every week I will do a quick drive thru of the all the games and cover the relevant fantasy points.  I will look at things that might be fluky or here to stay and try and point everyone in the right direction for the future.  We never want to overreact to a small-sample size, but sometimes getting in too early is still better than missing the boat entirely.

     

    Chiefs 27- Ravens 20

    The opener ended in classic fashion as Isiah Likely missed a game-tying TD by a toenail.  The takeaways from the game are Isiah Likely is going to be heavily involved in the passing game and Mark Andrews might be taking a backseat.  Likely ran a route on 70 percent of the team’s drop backs and was targeted on 34 percent of his pass routes.  It’s not time to panic, but it is time to pick up Likely, especially if you don’t already have a stud TE.  Derrick Henry looked human, but still scored, but might struggle behind a rebuilding o-line.  Justice Hill led all running backs with eight targets, six of which he caught for 52 yards.  Zay Flowers looked good, but the lack of downfield targets for the offense as a whole is alarming.  Anyone who drafted any Chiefs’ WR is celebrating and Xaiver Worthy is going to be boom-or-bust every week, but he has earned a starting spot on your team.  Rashee Rice is going to swing leagues and he is the steal for fantasy so far.  The Chiefs offense is back to being dynamic, but it will be telling to see how the targets get shared when Hollywood Brown returns to action.  Travis Kelce might be a sell-high before word gets out.

     

    Pickup of the game: Isaiah Likely TE -Priority high

     

    Eagles 34 – Packers 29

    The biggest story of this game was Jordan Love hurting his MCL and he will be on the shelf for a few weeks.  Malik Willis is going to step in, he doesn’t have any value outside of running the ball, but there is an outside shot he could make it work with the deep receiving core on Green Bay.  The big takeaway was Jayden Reed looking like a true WR1 and Christian Watson seeing a limed snap count and hardly any downfield throws.  One week is not a season, but Watson isn’t a start while Willis is playing, but Reed played well enough to rock with him until he lets you down.  If you won your week and the GM with Watson or Reed lost, send an insulting trade offer and hope he accepts.  Jalen Hurts looked average, but AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith can do more with less.  Saquon Barkley though, oh man, congrats if you snagged him.  He looks primed for a career-year and maybe 20 TDs.  He is not a trade-high candidate.

     

    Pickup of the game – Malik Willis QB – Priority low unless it’s a Superflex and you need a QB

     

    Steelers 18 – Falcons 10

    This game was ugly and the biggest takeaways were Kirk Cousins isn’t quite ready and the Pittsburgh defense is truly elite.  Maybe these two are correlated and Cousins just ran into a buzzsaw, but I would move the Pittsburgh D to the top of the list and not start Cousins next week if I could avoid it.  Until Cousins is right, Kyle Pitts and Drake London aren’t going to live up to their draft capital, but it’s a long season and we don’t want to overreact to Week 1.  Both are still starts in Week 2.  Justin Fields looked like Fields, he ran a lot and made a couple of nice throws.  He is a fringe QB1 as long Russell Wilson is out.  George Pickens though made the leap with seven targets which constituted a hefty 32 percent target share.  He’s locked and loaded no matter who is QB and should be primed for a monster season.  The timeshare between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren looked one-sided, but don’t panic yet on Warren.  It’s going to be scary what Bijan Robinson does against a normal defense.

     

    Pickup of the game – QB Justin Fields – Priority high if you need a QB

     

    Bills 34 – Cardinals 28

    Oh my Josh Allen.  He looks like an MVP with two rushing TDs and a still emerging passing game.  James Cook did a lot without scoring and it doesn’t look like the Bills are going to lean off Allen inside the red zone.  Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir both looked good, but Allen his 10 different receivers and Dalton Kincaid only saw one grab.  Coleman looked like he might emerge as Coleman in his first regular season NFL game ran a route on 94 percent of Josh Allen’s drop backs and led the team with a 21.7 percent target share.  It’s not panic time for Kincaid, but it’s definitely worry time.  The bigger worry is Marvin Harrison Jr., who looked lost, but could have redeemed himself if Kyler Murray found him wide open for a TD near the end of the game.  Don’t sell your MHJ stock, just pray for next week.  Kyler looked great running the ball and the passing game will come.  Trey McBride was solid, at last better than Kincaid, but it was Greg Dortch who saw eight looks on 31 attempts for Kyler Murray, giving him a 26% target share who led the team in  receiving yards.  James Connor is a true bell-cow and will see a lot of action all over the field this season.

     

    Pickup of the Game – WR Greg Dortch – Priority medium


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