Round Two: FIGHT! We’ve got to separate the games from the names at this point, so you’ll see a lot of talk about how players have been performing recently. It’s all on the line, you gotta play the guy you think plays best today (or tomorrow, depending when you’re reading this).

Don’t forget to read Larry Vannozzi’s weekly weather report to make sure you’re prepared for last minute alerts about mother nature’s plans in NFL cities across the country. Also, check out Brian Shade’s projection model to help you predict and prepare for this week’s slate of fantasy football!

First, a few housekeeping notes..

Q’s Quick Pick Total Record: 39-45, -11.72u

Week 1: 3-12, -8.96u; Week 2: 6-5, +0.3u; Week 3: 7-7, +0.88u; Week 4: 8-5, +1.6u; Week 5: 5-6, -4.65u; Weeks 6-8: N/A; Week 9: 4-4, -1.57u; Week 10: 6-6, +0.68

Picks: Odds are from DraftKings. Picks are for entertainment purposes only. Check out the Wager Pass for legit gambling talk.

Start Sit Decisions: Start your studs. Otherwise, these are yours and yours alone to make. Hopefully my previews help provide context to assist you in making an informed, matchup winning decision.

Scoring and League Format: The main focus is 1QB leagues, but I do make superflex references at times. The assumption is most folks play in 12 team leagues, and I use half point PPR rankings and stats when sifting through the madness. I don’t usually find a huge difference between half and full point PPR, but your volume receivers and tight ends receive a slight bump moving from half to full. Standard leagues could be a bit different, so be sure to hop into our discord or join one of our live shows either on Thursday’s at 5pm or Sunday’s at 10:30am to have your questioned answered in real time.

Matchup: New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Date: December 22, 2024 at 1:00p

Q’s Quick Pick: Drake London Anytime Touchdown (+115)

The Quarterbacks: (NYG) I can’t keep up with who’s starting anymore. After seeing Tommy DeVito for his second stink as the starter this year, Drew Lock (heel/left elbow) is off the injury report and set to make his return to the starting lineup yet again. He scored 14+ in two straight games before his injury. The Falcons defense has been back and forth over the last four weeks. They’ve given up a combined 650+ pass yards and nine touchdowns to Vikings Sam Darnold and Broncos Bo Nix. On the flip side, Raiders Desmond Ridder and Chargers Justin Herbert totaled just over 350 total yards and one touchdown. I don’t expect Lock to throw for 350+ and four touchdowns, but there’s a chance he has an average day. He’s only a factor in superflex leagues, and even there he’s a fringe QB2.. (ATL) The Kirk Cousins (coaches decision) in Atlanta concludes after just 15 weeks. Top ten pick Michael Penix, Jr. will make his first NFL start. He flashed in the preseason and some cameos throughout the year, but it’s hard to project what this offense will look like. Luckily, the Giants defense offers an easy transition from the college game to the NFL. He’s worth adding, but it would take a lot of guts to start him in 1QB leagues. Penix over Lock for superflex purposes. The upside for the rookie is so much greater than what Lock is likely to give us at this point in his career.

The Running Backs: (NYG) Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (ankle) has been managing an ankle injury this week, only practicing in a limited fashion for most, if not all of the week. There’s no real read either way, so monitor this one through kickoff. Tracy has been a revelation for the Giants and fantasy managers alike, rushing for 100+ yards three times and scoring five touchdowns since becoming the starter. There’s been some highs, with three top 12 finishes that saw him flash his explosiveness as a rusher and receiver. Then, we have some true duds: two finishes outside of the top 40 is a pretty low floor. While the Falcons aren’t a shut down run defenses, they have given up the fewest rushing touchdowns this year. The upside should be capped, but if he plays, Tracy should provide some flex value. Devin Singletary would be a fringe option if Tracy doesn’t play, and not someone I’d be terribly confident in.. (ATL) Start Bijan Robinson. He finished inside the top 14 in eight of the last nine contests this season, and there’s little doubt in my mind that he’ll make it nine of ten. Tyler Allgeier might have some low end flex appeal. He’s scored double digits just twice this season, but has seven top 40 finishes this season, which again, is low end flex range.

The Wide Receivers: (NYG) Malik Nabers is proving QB proof, corralling ten receptions for 82 yards and a score. That’s quite a performance in PPR leagues and was good enough for WR10 last week. He’ll continue to be a must start, but the likelihood of hitting his ceiling is lower than we like until the Giants manage to upgrade the QB position. Wan’Dale Robinson has been heavily involved as of late, seeing 20 targets over the last two weeks. Unfortunately, it resulted in eight receptions for 76 yards. It’s not great.. (ATL) The QB change comes at an interesting time. If you believe in Penix, then you believe in Drake London and Darnell Mooney, who he would be looking for more than anyone else in the passing game outside maybe the tight end (more on him below). The last three weeks have seen London fall to a WR3. Mooney has two games with 3.5 total points in the last three, and that includes a big ole zero round one last week. It’s tough to start a player coming off a zero, so I understand the hesitation on Mooney. I’m still going to trust London though and plug him in as a low end WR2 and be happy with anything else I get.

The Tight ends: (NYG) Still stashing Theo Johnson in dynasty and not thinking about him until at least next year.. (ATL) I sure hope Penix likes tight ends, because Kyle Pitts could really use some love. He hasn’t been startable in about a month. The one strength of the Giants defense is defending tight ends, so even though the matchup looks good on paper, and there’s some excitement around the new look offense, I’m staying away from Pitts if at all possible.

Matchup: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Date: December 22, 2024 at 1:00p

Q’s Quick Pick: Jared Goff UNDER 251.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The Quarterbacks: (DET) Jared Goff has this Lions team rolling. He has back to back top six performances, and three times in the last five weeks. He was QB18 when they last played Chicago, and that game was in Detroit. I’d be lying if I said I was 100% confident in Goff this week, but he’s a fringe QB1 because of the offense he’s on. The loss of Montgomery might lead the team to pass a little more than they like as well (more on that below).. (CHI) Caleb Williams hasn’t looked great this season, but has shown flashes. Four top six finishes looks nice, but then you see the eight games outside the top 20, and boy, that blows. He’s hard to trust in 1QB leagues even with the Lions ravaged by injuries on the defensive front, but if you believe in the ceiling, I guess I get it. I won’t be, though.

The Running Backs: (DET) David Montgomery (knee) is set to have season ending knee surgery. Fire up Jahmyr Gibbs as an even more smash play than he already was. I don’t think Gibbs assumes 100% of the touches due to he nature of his role, but he should most definitely see a sizeable bump. The Lions might rely a bit more on the passing game to help keep Gibbs fresh, but he’s also a big part of the aerial attack. Lock him into your lineup, as if you weren’t going to anyway.. (CHI) The Lions have been tough to run on all year, allowing the fifth least rushing yards on the year. They’ve been vulnerable to giving up rushing touchdowns though, so there’s your silver lining for D’Andre Swift this week.  He’s got five scores on the year, and has been held out of the end zone over the last four weeks. That marks his longest stretch this year without a touchdown. Maybe he’s due, and he does get the majority of the chances. Roschon Johnson has vultured his fair share of goal line shine this season, but is touchdown or bust. Only scoring two on the season, he’d need to see some volume in the pass game. He does have four games with 6+ targets, so that’s cool, but he still hasn’t cracked the top 20 since week 1.

The Wide Receivers: (DET) His targets have largely been down compared to last season, but it’s hard to be upset with Amon-Ra St. Brown after he just saw 18 targets, turning it into 14 receptions and nearly 200 yards. You don’t bench that kind of ceiling, ever. Jameson Williams has had a relatively nice season, ranging from a top five receiver to the outskirts of flex range, to totally useless. He’s been much more consistent since week ten, but I don’t love this spot on the road against a tough pass defense.. (CHI) Keenan Allen has lowkey been the most reliable option for the Bears pass offense. I don’t know that I saw that coming, especially after a tough stretch saw him off the fantasy radar. Yet, here we are. He’s notched 17 points in three of the last four, all while not having a 100 yard game in that time. He’s scored four touchdowns in those three games though, and totaled 36 targets. Call me crazy, but he’s a guy I’d be fine starting as a fringe WR2. DJ Moore has also seen a nice stretch, seeing two top ten finishes, but then plummeted to WR3 range the last two weeks. He’s another play I think is fine, but he’s number two on my list of Bears wide outs this week. Can’t trust Rome Odunze right now, but the future is bright.

The Tight ends: (DET) Sam LaPorta has three straight top 12 finishes after going back and forth between top ten and outside the top 24 like a ping pong ball. The risk is worth the reward against a Bears team that’s allowed the 12th most fantasy points to tight ends.. (CHI) Cole Kmet has finished outside the top 20 at the position in the last six games he’s played. The Lions are the worst matchup possible, so there’s no real reason to insert Kmet into your lineup with a trip to the championship on the line.

Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio

Date: December 22, 2024 at 1:00p

Q’s Quick Pick:

The Quarterbacks: (CLE) The tank appears to be on, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson getting the nod over Jameis Winston. Winston struggled last week, but I’m hard pressed to believe he’s worse than DTR. Either way, we haven’t seen a lot from him. In three games he played more than 70% of the snaps (all last season), he scored a high of 11.5 points. I’m out.. (CIN) Joe Burrow has finished as a QB1 in six straight. I’m all in with no reason not to be.

The Running Backs: (CLE) Nick Chubb (foot) had his comeback ended prematurely after being placed on IR after breaking his foot last week. we like Jerome Ford. He’s a solid running back and could be a fine RB2 with some RB1 upside. The QB situation might lead the Bengals to load the box, making it difficult for Ford to find room. I have a feeling he might need a touchdown to make his day worthwhile.. (CIN) Chase Brown has been a monster play with six straight top ten finishes. Continue to set and forget with no competition for touches behind him.

The Wide Receivers: (CLE) As quick as Jerry Jeudy rose this season, his value just plummeted even quicker with the QB change. Despite his recent success, I can’t see trusting him, Elijah Moore, or any other Browns WR. Not sure we need more analysis than that.. (CIN) Ja’Marr Chase is the WR1 by a wide margin. That means he should never be on your bench. Tee Higgins hasn’t been as much of a guaranteed play, but is one of the better non elite options you’ll find. The offense is humming, he has the talent to be a WR1 on upwards of 25 teams, so he’s better than most other WR2/3 options you’ll have on your roster, even with the Browns being an above average pass defense. It feels like Cleveland is just riding the season out.

The Tight ends: David Njoku (hamstring) is again listed as questionable this week. He’s been a high volume player at the position, which is hard to find. Even if he continues to see double digit targets, they are coming from a much lesser talent. It’ll be hard to start him this week; I’m sure there’s someone you can find on the wire.. (CIN) Mike Gesicki is a great example of a waiver wire tight end i’d start over Njoku, and Gesicki isn’t that appealing this week. He was held to one catch for two yards the last time these teams faced. I’m not trusting Gesicki unless my other options is in in the TE3 range.

Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Date: December 22, 2024 at 1:00p

Q’s Quick Pick:

The Quarterbacks: (TEN) The Titans are once again benching Will Levis (coaches decision) in favor of Mason Rudolph. In his three game stint as a starter earlier in the year, he has 21.5 and 18.5 points, good for QB 13 and 14 respectively. In all three of his starts, they trusted him enough to throw the ball anywhere from 33-40 times, so I don’t see them shying away from the passing game here. The Colts haven’t given teams a ton of reason to not throw the ball, giving up the 13th most points to QBs. All in all, I like Rudolph enough for superflex leagues. I just can’t get there in 1QB with so much on the line though.. (IND) Anthony Richardson has come back better than he was before his benching, which is a great sign for his maturity, character, and work ethic. There’s still a lot of work to be done with his accuracy, but the upside in fantasy comes from his rushing ability, which is as good as its been. He has at least seven carries in four straight, and four touchdowns in four games. That’s a safe enough floor to keep him inside the top 15 or so.

The Running Backs: (TEN) Tony Pollard (ankle) didn’t practice at all this week. This happened earlier in the year as well, and he came out and rushed for 128 yards on 28 carries against New England. If we remember though, Tyjae Spears wasn’t available that week. He’s been disappointing all season until last weeks explosion via the passing game. If Pollard is actively, it muddies things down, and I’m not sure I’d trust either guy as more than an RB3, although both would still have some more upside than that. Now, if Spears is the lead back, I like him a good bit. He showed explosiveness and big play prowess, and the Colts aren’t any good at stopping the run.. (IND) Jonathan Taylor has been good, not great, this season.  He’s yet to finish outside the top 36, but a couple of those include a 3.5 and 6.5 point performance as low points. Still, he should see most, if not all of the touches as he usually does, making him a must start. Volume is king.

The Wide Receivers: (TEN) Calvin Ridley hasn’t  been able to stay consistently inside the top 24, and remains a middling WR3. Keep in mind though, his ten catch 143 yard performance did come with Rudolph at the helm. It makes you think, but then you see the Colts have been surprisingly good at limiting fantasy production from wide outs. And Ridley is back to borderline flex territory for now. The touchdown magic may have run out for our friend Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, going two straight without finding the end zone.. (IND) Michael Pittman had a nice stretch in the middle of the season where he was serviceable, but that’s all but gone and dried up now. He’s involved, seeing between 7-9 targets the past four weeks, but it just hasn’t turned into anything worthwhile outside of a WR15 finish in week 12. Josh Downs  has also largely fallen off after s nice stretch himself there. The last two weeks have seen him finish as WR60 and 61. I like him better than Pittman, but I still don’t really like him that much this week. I’m keeping an eye on this passing offense this off-season to see if they change things up, or if Richardson can become a more accurate passer. The talent it there in Indy, they just need to put it all together. Hopefully next season we see it happen.

The Tight ends: (TEN) CHIG! Chig Okonkwo has his best game of the year from a production standpoint, seeing season highs in targets and receptions. The week 15 TE7 will look to have another nice performance against a Colts team who gets lit up by tight ends regularly. Okonkwo firmly in streaming territory.. (IND) There isn’t a name in this room that you could convince me to start under any circumstance.

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