The PGA Tour returns this week after 200-1 longshot Kurt Kitayama was able to hold a slew of elite players to earn his first PGA tour win and the $3.6 million-dollar top prize. Kitayama seemed like he may distance himself from the pack early, but a triple bogey on hole 9 brought nearly eight players back into the mix including McIlroy, Hatton, Scheffler, Hovland and Spieth. Kitayama was able to battle back and birdie the 17^th to go up by one and hold on for par on the 18^th after some trouble off the tee. It was a rollercoaster of a Sunday afternoon as the designated events keep producing excellent Sundays. Now, we move on to The PLAYERS Championship.

The largest prize pool of the season ($25 million) is up for grabs this week for The PLAYERS Championship played at TPC Sawgrass located in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. One of the most prestigious tournaments on the calendar, the hosts of the event like to refer to it as “the 5^th major” of the golf season. However, now with the designated events and enormous prize pools, it kind of takes away some of the allure this tournament once had. Nonetheless, the field is another star-studded lineup. Last year this tournament featured one of the craziest weather draws in recent memory with wind gusts in the 40-mph range and a rain delay that caused the second round to not be completed until Saturday. The tournament had historically always been played in March until 2007 when it was switched to May, but since 2019 has been switched back to the traditional March start date.

A mix of the weather and course design leads to a lot of variance at this tournament, so course history is not much of an indicator of future success here. Due to this variance I am going to use a bit bigger of a player pool than I do in a normal week in hopes of finding the correct 6/6 combo to win all the money. Let’s dig in.

The Course

TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye designed 7,189-yard Par 72. True to form of a Pete Dye design, you will have plenty of scoring opportunities if you hit the ball well, but poor shots will leave you in a world of hurt. Water is everywhere here with hazards on 17 holes and none more pronounced than the famous 17^th par 3 “island green.” That is followed up by the most difficult hole on the course, the 462 par 4 18^th (33% bogey or worse rate) with water lining the whole left-hand side of the fairway. It is one of the best closing holes in all of golf and should produce an exciting Sunday finish.

The historic cut line at the event has been E or 1 over par, but it really depends on the weather. Last year we saw the cut line reach up to 3 over par with the treacherous winds. We will keep an eye on the weather as the week progresses.

There have been a variety of styles that have been successful at Sawgrass. As with most weeks, approach play is king, but it is especially true this week. Historical winners average 1.5 strokes gained in approach compared to the field (off the tee and around the green are both about .5 strokes). Putting on the Bermuda greens is of course important as well, but finding fairways and staying out of the water are going to be crucial this week.

The Field

144 players will be vying for the title this week and once again we are treated to another excellent field. There isn’t much left to say about the quality of these designated fields. They are awesome and I once again expect the cream to rise to the top as the week progresses.

To hammer home the point of the randomness of this tournamen,t let’s take a look at recent champs and their recent finishes at The PLAYERS.

Cam Smith: 1^st– 2022/ 17^th-2021/ 56^th-2019/ MC-2018/ MC-2017

Justin Thomas: T33^rd– 2022/ 1^st -2021/ T35th- 2019/ T11th-2018/ T75th-2017

Rory McIlroy: T33rd- 2022/ MC-2021/ 1^st-2019/ MC-2018/ T35th-2017

Webb Simpson: MC-2022/ MC- 2021/ T16th-2019/ 1^st-2018/ T16th-2017

Si Woo Kim: W/D-2022/ T9-2021/ T56- 2019/ T63-2018/ 1^st-2017

Key Stats

Below are the main stats I will be looking at this week. These are just a general baseline of attributes that have done well at this course previously. Success on other Pete Dye designed courses, performance on courses under 7,200 yards, scrambling and performance on difficult courses will also be considered.

1. SG: Approach– No surprises here. This is first on the list every week, but I weigh this stat a little extra this week. With so much trouble lurking at every corner here, you have to be dialed in with the irons to contend at TPC Sawgrass (unless you are Webb Simpson in 2018 who ran like a God on the greens that week).
2. Par 4: 450-500– This hole construction makes up some of the most difficult holes on the course. I don’t expect a lot of scoring to be done on these holes (it would certainly be welcome though), but we don’t want golfers who will be a trainwreck on these holes either.
3. Fairways Gained – The hazards lurking on this course have been brought up enough times already. Playing second shots from the fairway and having the proper angles into these tricky greens will be important. Out of position off the tee can lead to big numbers quickly.
4. SG: Putting (Bermuda)– This won’t be weighed too heavily, but it is definitely still something to consider. Some guys struggle to adjust to the Bermuda greens and some guys have seen dramatic spikes in their putting numbers once they reach Florida. Obviously, our golfers will need to drop some putts to do well this week, so we want to keep an eye who does well on these surfaces.
5. SG: Tee to Green- I’m adding this to the mix this week because I want to put an extra emphasis on approach play. If our guys are getting to the green in regulation at a reasonable rate this week, then they will be in a position to do well. I like this stat to give a snapshot of who has their overall golf game trending in the right direction heading into this week.

Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts as the week goes on and I’d be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

Round 1 Props

Thrive Contest Plays for Thursday’s Round 1 Action

Jon Rahm 69.5 Strokes LESS (100 PTS) – This seems like a bit of an overaction to the poor Friday and Saturday rounds Rahm showed last week. After jetting out to the lead after Thursday with a 65, he followed it up with back-to-back 76s. Rahm looked like he was well on his way to another poor performance Sunday but was able to rally on the back nine, making birdie on three of his final seven holes. Rahm has been the hottest player in the world and I am going to see a little bit more before I stop betting on him playing well.

Sungjae Im 2.5 Birdies MORE (75 PTS) – He’s gone 7of-12 on this number in three career appearances at TPC Sawgrass. Im also has a sterling record in Florida and with his putting on Bermuda greens. Sungjae is also one of the more prolific irons players in the field and should put himself in position to eclipse this number on Thursday.

Adam Scott 1.5 Bogeys MORE (80 PTS) – He’s gone over this number four consecutive years in the opening round at this event. It has been an ok start to the year for Scott having no missed cuts, but nothing inside the top-20 either. Bermuda is also his worst putting surface so I will look to attack that angle and bet on at least 2 bogeys on Thursday from the 2004 PLAYERS champion.

Props Record YTD

19-8

DFS Top Tier Play

Collin Morikawa

Salary: $9,500

We are going to embrace the variance of this event and start off by skipping the big three of Rory, Rahm and Scheffler to start. This is not to say you shouldn’t play those guys in some of your lineups, that would be silly. Two of the past three weeks we have seen a MC from Morikawa, which admittedly isn’t ideal. However, in his other three starts this year he has gone 2^nd at the Sentry (which he should have won in all honesty), 3^rd at the Farmers and 6^th at the Genesis. Even in the missed cuts, he exhibited strong approach play and tee to green play (which he ranks in the top-10 of in the last 24). He also ranks in the top-5 in that period of fairways gained and has shown the ability to putt well on Bermuda greens when he won the WGC-Workday at The Concession (located in Florida).

He has a 41^st and a missed cut in his two appearances at The PLAYERS, but I mentioned earlier I am throwing course history out the window this week. This is the type of course that Morikawa can shine at and if he putts well, I am confident he will be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Others Considered: Tony Finau ($9,200), Scottie Scheffler ($10,600)

DFS Mid Tier Play

Jason Day

Salary: $8,000

Check back later in the week on this play, as I suspect that Day may command one of the highest ownership percentages this week. If that is the case, I would be looking to pivot in tournaments, but he would still be an excellent option for cash games. The 2016 champion of this event has seen quite the resurgence lately. Four straight top-10 finishes and has been immaculate off the tee, around the green, and is putting like he did back when he was the number 1 ranked player in the world. The iron play has been decent and when it has been bad, he has made up for it in those other areas of his game. Day also has one of the best course histories here (but still includes four missed cuts including last year) with four top-10s and the aforementioned win in 2016. He just doesn’t get himself into trouble very often and that translates well to TPC Sawgrass. My favorite pivot in this range if we are shooting for upside would be Sahith Theegala (five top-10s on the season so far and plays difficult courses well, but his erratic off the tee play makes me a little nervous here).

Others Considered: Sahith Theegala ($7,600), Tyrrell Hatton ($8,300)

DFS Value Play

Wyndham Clark

Salary: $7,100

Clark has been absolutely on fire with his approach play as of late and it has translated into some great results. He has gained at least two strokes on the field with his irons in five of his last six outings which he has parlayed into 34^th, 33^rd, 10^th, 37^th, 50^th and 10^th in that span. He plays well on difficult courses and quite well in windy and moderately windy conditions as well. Fairways gained have been the weakest part of his game recently which can be cause for concern here, but I am willing to ride the momentum that Clark comes in with at his cheap price tag.

Others Considered: Russell Henley ($7,300), Ben Griffin ($7,100)

Outright Betting Picks

Collin Morikawa (+2200) (FD)

Tony Finau (+2800) (FD)

*Will look to add more once the tee times are announced and we have a better handle on the weather splits (if any arises). Follow my Twitter for updates!

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