The PGA Tour returns this week after Jon Rahm was able to hold off Sunday charges from Max Homa and Patrick Cantlay and take home the 3.6 million top prize and collect his third win of the calendar year. Who knew that having the best players in the world in the same event would produce such great tournaments? The designated events have been a huge success so far this year and it’s exciting to see what is in store the rest of the season. Now, we move on to the Honda Classic.

PGA National is playing host this year to the Honda Classic, the final year that Honda will be the title sponsor of the event. Honda has been the sponsor of this event for the past 42 years, but it was announced in November that that will no longer be the case. Perhaps Honda sees the writing on the wall that this event is losing stature and field strength due to LIV defections and being sandwiched in between 4 designated events that this event is going to have a rough go of it in assembling high quality fields in the future. Nevertheless, we kick off the Florida swing in Palm Beach Gardens for one of the most volatile tournaments we will see this year. Let’s dig in.

The Course

PGA National plays as a 7,125-yard par-70 and is another tough test of golf for the field this week. Water is in play on 15 holes here and this course is routinely one of, if not the leader, in water balls for the season. Moderate, unpredictable winds combined with fast and firm fairways leads to a lot of variance for players and difficult scoring conditions. Things can go off the rails and big numbers can accumulate quickly here. The cut line for this event has always been above par in recent memory (even reaching as high as +7 in 2011).

This course’s claim to fame is the notorious “Bear Trap” consisting of holes 15-17 and ranks as one of the most difficult three-hole stretches the players will face all year. Each hole prominently features water, especially on the approach shots to the green. Par 3s on holes 15 and 17 bookend a difficult Par 4 16 that can cause chaos coming down the stretch Sunday evening and dramatically shake up the leader board. If you come out of this stretch with scores of 3-4-3, you have done quite well for yourself.

The Field

While the last two weeks have been mega fields with two designated events, this week leaves a lot to be desired. Only nine of the top fifty in the world are in attendance this week, headlined by 2020 Honda Classic Champion Sungjae Im. There is also the usual flavor of international players playing this week as well as several up-and-comers looking for their first PGA Tour victory and securing a spot in The Masters this April.

The 144-player field will be competing for a purse of $8.4 million with a little over a million going to the top dog this week.

Key Stats

The typical winning score will land -9 to -12 range depending on the weather. We are going to lean heavily on approach game with danger lurking around every corner at this course. We will also be looking for a little distance and good sand players as there is plenty of sand traps to be found here.

Here are the key stats I am considering when building my lineups this week.

1. SG: Approach– A staple stat that translates to any course. It is the stat that has been proven to be heavily correlated with long term success and past winners of this event. With fast, firm and probable windy conditions, golfers’ second shots this week will need to be dialed in to contend.
2. Dr Dist/Fairways Gained– These are two different stats, but I will be looking at them in unison this week. While the course is on the shorter side, distance off the tee is a major benefit here for easier approach shots. This logic really comes to fruition when playing from the fairway and golfers are able to better control the spin on their approaches.
3. SG: Ball Striking – For those unfamiliar with the stat, SG:BS is a combination of off the tee stats as well as approach play. We are really going overweight on making sure we target golfers who are striking the golf ball well. While you may be able to get away with poor irons shots at other courses, that is simply not the case here.
4. Sand Saves Gained: Sand traps are prevalent throughout the property and chances are whoever we roster/bet on are going to need to get out of the sand. It is not an end all be all category, but worth a look.

Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts as the week goes on and I’d be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

Round 1 Props

Thrive Contest Plays for Thursday’s Round 1 Action

Harris English 4.5 Birdies LESS (80 PTS) – This is a mixture of a fade on the number and lack of confidence in the player. English was a prolific winner on tour a couple years ago before a back injury set him back. He flashed some good form with a T12 at the Genesis last week and an impressive 65 on Sunday, but 5 birdies are a lot to ask for on this course and I’m not willing bet that English is up to the task.

Matt Kuchar 66.5 Strokes MORE (70 PTS) – Matt Kuchar has joined the trend of comeback season for some of the tour veterans this year (Day, Fowler, etc). I am bullish on Kuchar this week as a whole, but this is too lower of a number to get behind for the opening round.

Webb Simpson 0.5 Eagles LESS (50 PTS) – Only two Par 5s on the course this week and both have surrendered an eagle less than 3% of the time. Webb has continued to play poorly this year and while it only takes one good hole to lose this prop on Thursday, this prop is appropriately priced as highly unlikely. Webb has no career eagles at this course in sixteen rounds.

Props Record YTD

13-8

DFS Top Tier Play

Chris Kirk

Salary: $9,900

Sunjae Im and Shane Lowry are the two top players in the field, but aren’t leaps and bounds better than the next tier down as if Rahm and Rory were in the field. I am comfortable completely fading those two and starting with Kirk in my lineups. He comes off of a missed cut as the WM Phoenix Open but had back-to-back 3rd-place finishes before that in lesser field events (Sony, AMEX). He has excellent touch around the green and is one of the best ball strikers in the field. He’s also flashed upside at this event before (7th last year) and is a strong anchor for our lineups this week.

Others Considered: Min Woo Lee ($9,400), Matt Kuchar ($9,300)

DFS Mid Tier Play

Jhonattan Vegas

Salary: $8,600

Vegas disappeared for a while with an injury, but seems to have shaken off the rust and is really playing some good golf lately. If he can just have any semblance of a putting game this week, his off-the-tee prowess and strong iron game should put him in good shape to contend here. As an added bonus, he is one of the best players in the field in windy conditions, which is always a threat at PGA National. Sandwiched between the champion last year in Sepp Straka ($8,500) and trendy darling Adam Svennson ($8,700), I prefer Vegas as a pivot play.

Others Considered: Ben Griffin ($7,900), Hayden Buckley ($7,600)

DFS Value Play

Sam Stevens

Salary: $7,000

We don’t have a ton of data on the rookie from Oklahoma State so far in his PGA career, but from what we do have, I’m intrigued. He is just solid in all the stats that I am looking at this week, with sand play being his weakest link, but makes up for it with strong par 4 and long iron play. He also has some familiarity with the course to the tune of a 55th finish last year. Stevens has made his last three cuts including a 13 at the Farmer’s and a 34th at Pebble Beach. I want to be early to the party on Stevens.

Others Considered: Satoshi Kodaira ($6,700), Austin Eckroat ($6,700)

Outright Betting Picks

*All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Hayden Buckley (+6000)

Nick Hardy (+7500)

Austin Eckroat (+15000)

Dylan Frittelli (+13000)

Sam Stevens (+13000)

Lineup Builder