The Conference Championships are here with a 2-game main slate on DraftKings to dive into. Let’s review every game and go over some spend-up and spend-down spots in each contest.

Before we get into the plays, here are a few general thoughts about how to attack this slate:

1. For the most part, I am applying my showdown strategy to this weekend, because it essentially is just that minus the ability to play multiple QBs in your lineup. Construct your lineups to the contest you are playing. The pricing is soft enough that you don’t have to use dart-throws in your cash or single-entry and three max entries.
2. Don’t feel like you have to play a piece from every single team. A mistake a lot of people make is getting FOMO from needing to get a player from every team. Focus on putting together a story that makes sense and correlating plays rather than spreading your exposure around.
3. I stated this point in last week’s article, but I think it bares repeating. Some advice I got when I first started playing DFS and continue to improve upon every week: “It’s not always about who you play, it’s more about how you play them.” This adage applies every week, but especially in condensed slates like this. Playing into ownership is inevitable on slates like this, but being thoughtful about the combination of where your chalk is coming from is so crucial.

Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts and I’ll be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

Main Slate Props

Thrive Contest Plays on Sunday

This weekend Thrive’s contest requires you to select 10 of the 20 props listed and acquire as many points as possible. Let’s look at some of the best values on the board to start you off on the right foot.

DeVonta Smith 5.5 REC MORE (110 PTS) – He’s gone over this number in four straight games, Smith is the type of receiver capable of giving the 49ers secondary problems. Last week we targeted down-field threats for Dallas, which Dak was unable to take advantage of. Hurts has targeted Smith at least eight times in every game since Week 10.

Jalen Hurts 18.5 CMP MORE (85 PTS) – Hurts has gone over this number in four of five games.  He didn’t go over this number last week due to game-script, but the 49ers defense is a different animal compared to the Giants. I expect the Eagles to attack through the air and Hurts can use his mobility to escape the pocket and extend plays and drives.

George Kittle 0.5 REC TD’S MORE (120 PTS) – The Eagles’ secondary is certainly talented, but they are most vulnerable in the middle of the field. Kittle has emerged as Purdy’s favorite target through the air and the Eagles have given up four red-zone touchdowns to the TE this year, which is second to only the Browns (6).

JuJu Smith-Schuster 4.5 REC LESS (95 PTS) – Surprisingly, the Bengals gave up the least number of receptions to the WR position this season with only 167. While I do expect the Chiefs to throw the ball a lot, I see Mahomes leaning on his main target Kelce once again. JuJu has gone under this number in four-straight and seven of his last nine contests.

Tee Higgins 58.5 REC YDS LESS (110 PTS) – Higgins has gone under this number in five of six (six of seven if you count the infamous Week 14 Cleveland game where he was “active”). Higgins has been very boom-or-bust since the return of Chase and much like Smith-Schuster, I imagine Burrow will rely on Chase to get the job done against this average Chiefs secondary.

Patrick Mahomes 315.5 PASS + RUSH YDS LESS (110 PTS) – I have no doubt Mahomes will gut out a great performance and not let the ankle be a hinderance to the passing game. I do fear there will not be much rushing upside from Mahomes in this game which draws me to the under on this number. The 20-30 rushing yards he had been routinely contributing just isn’t going to be there and while there is obviously a real chance he goes over this number on passing yards alone, I’m willing to bet against that.

Playoff Prop Record

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San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Game Time: Sunday 3:05 pm ET

Line: Philadelphia -2.5

Total: 46.5

Spend Up: Jalen Hurts ($7,900)

Hurts shook all doubt of his shoulder last week against the Giants. It wasn’t a virtuoso passing performance by any means, but that was related more to game-script as the Eagles pulled away early and never looked back. This contest will more than likely stay more competitive. As mentioned in the props section, I expect the Eagles to attack the 49ers (#2 in DVOA against the run) through the air which they have proven capable of doing. If we look back to when the Eagles played the Titans (#1 in DVOA vs the run) in Week 13, Hurts threw 39 times and still managed to rush for a TD as well. This presents an opportunity for Hurts to hit the 300-plus yard bonus and the ever-present threat of him rushing for a score, especially in goal-to-go situations.

Spend Up: Christian McCaffery ($8,000)

The Eagles rank inside the top-10 for fantasy points against to the QB, WR, and TE position. RB however, the Eagles were not even in the top half of the league (18th). The concerns of the calf issue for McCaffery may supress his ownership some, but I don’t expect it to be much of an issue. While Elijah Mitchell ($4,900) might pilfer away some carries, the passing game work remains strong for CMC and he could be a safety valve for Purdy as he tries to establish a rhythm in a raucous environment.

Spend Down: Deebo Samuel ($5,700)

I am going to continue to roster Deebo if he is going to continue to remain this cheap. Yes, the passing game upside may not be quite what it has been lately going against this stout Eagles passing defense, but I have to believe Kyle Shanahan is going to find ways to get one of his most dynamic players the ball. Samuel is certainly capable of breaking off big runs in the short passing game or as a rusher.

Spend Down: Eagles DST ($2,800)

Going a little off the board here and going with a DST. I am surprised that they came in less expensive than the 49ers ($3,000). This is easily the best secondary Purdy has gone against and a couple turnovers is on the table for the rookie. Micah Parsons last week also proved that a consistent pass rush is capable against this solid 49ers offensive line. Nobody on the Eagles defensive line is quite to the level of Parsons, but they certainly can get to the QB as a unit, accumulating 70 sacks during the year, 15 more than the next closest team. The Eagles DST has also scored double-digits in three of their last four.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

Game Time: Sunday 6:30 pm ET

Line: Kansas City -1.5

Total: 48

Spend Up: Travis Kelce ($7,800)

90-plus yards in seven-straight playoff games, eight touchdowns in that span and eight receptions in six of his last seven, what else is there to say? Oh, and he set an NFL record for receptions in a playoff game by a tight end last week against Jacksonville (14). A matchup-proof fantasy beast that offers one of the highest ceilings on the slate, regardless of position.

Spend Up: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,600)

Double-digit targets in eight of his last ten appearances and Joe Burrow’s most trusted weapon, it’s all systems go for Chase this week. The Chiefs gave up 20 touchdowns to the WR position in the regular season and another one last week to the Jaguars, while Chase has found paydirt in five of his last six. Chase went 7/97/0 in the Bengals’ Week 13 win over Kansas City which feels like his floor in this matchup.

Spend Down: Tyler Boyd ($3,800)

The floor is certainly scary when you click on Boyd’s name, but there is certainly upside when you do as well. He has reached double-digit DraftKings points eight times this year including a 4/60/0 performance in the Week 13 matchup against these same Chiefs. Another stat in favor of rostering Boyd this week; the Chiefs have given up the 2nd most TDs to slot WRs in the league, which is where Boyd almost exclusively lines up.

Spend Down: Hayden Hurst ($3,000)

He went 5/59/1 last week and they dropped his price? Even accounting for the reduced slate, I will gladly take the savings and roster Hurst who is very involved in one of the pass-happiest offenses in the league. As noted above, the Chiefs struggle to defend the middle of the field where Hurst does a majority of his work. Kansas City also surrendered nine touchdowns to the TE this year, which ranked 5th worst in the league.

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