The PGA Tour returns this week after a come-from-behind victory by Mr. California himself, Max Homa and cashing our 22-1 outright on him on the Saturday finish at Torrey Pines. Sam Ryder impressed to a T4 finish and was tournament leader for a majority of the event. However, he had nothing but world-class players surrounding him on the leaderboard over the weekend including Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Jason Day and of course Max Homa but wasn’t able to hang on.

We move on now to Carmel Bay, CA for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Yes, another pro-am event and yes, another event with 3 rotating courses and a 54-hole cut like we saw two weeks ago at the American Express. Two major differences this week are that the amateurs this week are more so on the celebrity side and soak up some of the broadcast (especially on Saturday). Some of the big-name celebs participating this year include Josh Allen, Ray Ramano, Aaron Rodgers, Steve Young and of course Bill Murray.

Professionals will be paired with an amateur and will go out in foursomes of two pros and two joes. Each pairing will play each course in the rotation the first three days of the tournament and the top-65 (and ties) professionals will return for the final round Sunday at the iconic Pebble Beach. The three courses in play this week are the forementioned Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula Country Club and Spyglass Hill Golf Club. Pebble is the only course where ShotLink is utilized so all historical strokes gained data only comes from said course.

All three courses are under 7,200 in total yardage and feature Poa Annua greens. Speaking of the greens, Pebble Beach features the smallest greens on tour but can be some of the trickiest to navigate. Pebble also features some of the most notorious bunkers on tour and is an area players will be looking to avoid more than normal this week. Scoring isn’t much of an issue when the weather cooperates, so we will be sure to keep an eye on that as the week progresses. Before we get more into the field let’s look at the past five winners at this event:

2022: Tom Hoge (-19)

2021: Daniel Berger (-18)

2020: Nick Taylor (-19)

2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)

2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)

Unfortunately, this event has lost steam in terms of firepower over the years. The long rounds due to the pro-am nature of the event, other worldwide events played this same week and the place on the tour schedule (sandwiched between the Farmer’s and two prestigious events in the WM Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational) have led to lackluster fields recently and this year is no exception. Only 3 of the top 25 players in the OWGR are in attendance in Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland and Matt Fitzpatrick.

The short yardage of all the courses brings all types of golfers into play this week and that shows in the leaderboards. Course history does tend to be a bit stickier at this event compared to others, but we will also be using a blend of long-term and short-term form when evaluating the field.

Here are the key stats I am considering when building my lineups this week.

1. SG: Approach– A staple stat that translates to any course. It is the stat that has been proven to be heavily correlated with long-term success. With minimal rough, small greens and potential for wind gusts at any time being on a coastal venue, golfers’ second shots this week will need to be dialed in to contend.
2. GIR Gained– GIR (Greens in Regulation) has proven to be a key part of success at this event, especially at Pebble Beach where we mentioned the smallest greens on tour. Historically, winners gain an average of nearly two strokes to the field in their GIR Gained which is more than an average tour event. This stat also correlates well with strong iron play as you are not hitting many small greens with poor second shots.
3. Proximity Gained: 100-125/125-150 Yards- These two ranges combined will account for nearly 40% of the distance left for second shots at this event. Strong wedge is a massive prerequisite for playing well this week.
4. SG: P (Poa)- Poa Annua greens can be a little finicky and have given some golfers fits with the unpredictable nature of them. We want to take a closer look at golfers that are experienced and excel on these green surfaces.
5. Birdie or Better %: All three courses can be had in decent weather conditions. There is nothing in the forecast at the moment that would suggest otherwise, so I am looking for golfers who can score well enough to post a score comparable to past winners.
6. SG: Total (Pebble Beach)- As mentioned earlier, course history has proven to be a factor here as the past 13 champions have played in this event at least twice previously. It could be the pro-am nature of the event which is different from the norm, but navigating your way through these three courses can be tricky and may take a few times before success comes.

Follow me on Twitter @mlafem10 for additional thoughts and I’ll be happy to help out with any lineup questions you have. Let’s make some money!

Round 1 Props

Thrive Contest Plays for Thursday’s Round 1 Action

Webb Simpson 5.5 Birdies LESS (85 PTS) – I’ve been picking on Webb to begin the year and it hasn’t come back to bite me yet, so let’s go back to the well once more. He has lost strokes with his iron play in five of his last seven to go along with a shaky putter. I have seen nothing from Webb so far that leads me to believe he is on the upswing with his game and able to make six-plus birdies in a single round.

Jordan Spieth 68.5 Strokes LESS (110 PTS) – Tee times have not been announced at the time for this writing, but I can almost guarantee he will not be seeing Pebble until Saturday, so CBS can have the top players on TV as well as the celebrity pro-am portion. Spieth opened with a 68 at Monterey Peninsula CC last year and has gone under this number in three of his last four opening rounds at this event.

Matt Fitzpatrick 2.5 Bogeys LESS (85 PTS) – Similar to the Spieth birdie logic, I expect Fitzpatrick to start his week on the easy course. Fitz is number one in this field over the last 50 rounds in bogey avoidance and the weather at the moment does not appear as if it will present any danger on Thursday. He went over this number once in four rounds at this event last year on his way to a share for 6th.

Props Record YTD

8-4

DFS Top Tier Play

Jordan Spieth

Salary: $10,600

We mentioned course history as being a bigger part of the process than normal, so let’s go with an immaculate one to start of our lineups. 2nd-place finish last year and he proceeded that with 3rd, 9th, 45th, 20th, 1st, 21st, 7th, 4th and 22nd in his career here. His excellent wedge play and wizardry around the greens have contributed to his success here. Spieth is a perfect start to a cash lineup and has also shown the upside at this event to be a tournament play as well. He will come with some ownership that we have to be mindful of, but I am ok eating the chalk here.

Others Considered: Keith Mitchell ($9,100), Seamus Power ($9,800)

DFS Mid Tier Play

David Lipsky

Salary: $8,200

Lipsky has quietly been playing some great golf as of late. Yes, he did miss the cut at his most recent event at the American Express, but that was fueled by a dreadful performance with the putter, losing six strokes to the field. Previous to that, he had been 4th, 22nd and 10th. He debuted at this event last year with a top-25 finish and checks a lot of key statistical boxes this week. He is 4th in GIR, 13th in Approach, and 15th in the 100-125 Proximity range over the past 50 rounds. Lipsky also gains strokes on the field in windy conditions which is always a threat on a coastal course.

Others Considered: Taylor Moore ($8,300), Lanto Griffin ($7,600)

DFS Value Play

Matthew NeSmith

Salary: $7,300

This play is relying on event history to help get NeSmith back into form. He comes in coming off of three consecutive missed cuts, which on the surface isn’t great. A closer look into things though and we see that they have all been right on the number and up until last week, he was done in by one abysmal round followed up by a fantastic round. If we can reduce the horrid round to an average round, there is a lot of upside here. He owns a 65th and two top-20 finishes in this event in three appearances. In the last 50 rounds, he is 1st in GIR, 3rd in approach and top-30 in Birdies or Better. He comes with some risk for sure, but I think he is more than capable of rewarding those who risk clicking his name.

Others Considered: Troy Merritt ($7,200), Ben Taylor ($7,200)

Outright Betting Picks

*All odds are curtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400) **

Taylor Moore (+7500)

Lanto Griffin (+9000)

Troy Merritt (+11000)

**Used a +300 boost DraftKings is currently offering to any outright bet for this tournament. Would strongly suggest using that on one of the favorites of your choice to make the number a little more palatable.

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