Fantasy Football: Third-Year WR Breakouts

  • Historically, in their third season is when wide receivers take their biggest jump in productivity as it takes them a couple seasons to understand defensive schemes, develop rapport with their QBs and master their craft. Most recently, players such as Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp and Michael Thomas have taken massive leaps and had breakout seasons as third-year professionals. The 2020 class, who now enter their third year, is absolutely loaded with talent and are ready to produce career years, establishing themselves amongst the league’s best. There are studs like Justin Jefferson and Ceedee Lamb who have already shot into fantasy stardom, so let’s look at some other players who are primed to join them at that next level, including some late-round sleeper picks.

     

    Gabriel Davis, Bills

     

    After Davis’ monster playoff performance, the hype train was in full force for the third year Bills’ receiver.  He enters the season as the second option in a top-3 offense and should be able to feast.  Surprisingly as draft season approaches, it seems that the fantasy community is not as high on him as they were a month or two ago.  In his last six games last season, Davis ran a route on 88% of dropbacks, leading to 19.8 fantasy points per game (PPR).  He has the ceiling to finish as a top-15 WR, so his WR32 ADP makes it a no-brainer to grab him in the sixth round. Josh Allen is the consensus QB1 and he has to score his fantasy points somewhere, so it seems likely for Davis to breakout in his third season.

     

    Tee Higgins, Bengals

     

    Last season, Higgins had a 2% higher target rate per route run than Ja’Marr Chase, yet Chase is going as a top-6 pick in fantasy drafts this season, while Higgins is going in Round 3. Higgins could very easily lead the Bengals in targets, catches, yards and even touchdowns this year and fantasy GMs are getting a nice two round draft discount in comparison to his running mate.  Higgins ranked 13th in fantasy points per game in PPR formats last season and should flirt with that ranking again this year.  Coming off a year with 85 catches on 130 targets, 1,224 yards and seven touchdowns, it’s hard to not see Higgins fighting for a top-12 finish at the wide receiver position. He may not have the game-breaking upside that Chase has, but Higgins is an incredibly reliable and consistent wide receiver that should be queued in the third round for every fantasy GM.

     

    Michael Pittman Jr., Colts

     

    Pittman Jr. enters his third year with his third quarterback, receiving a sizable upgrade with Matt Ryan replacing Carson Wentz from a year ago. Even with Wentz at QB, the Colts tried to feed him the ball last season, running a route on 96% of dropbacks. He had a 24% target share, ranking eighth in the league, and hauled in an impressive 18 contested catches, fourth in the NFL. He is the bonafide #1 target in the passing game for the Colts with a QB that has a history of supporting top-12 wide receivers in Atlanta. Pittman should repeat as a member of the 1,000 yard receiving club, with the potential of finishing with around 120 catches and double-digit touchdowns.  The lack of target competition in a top-10 offense should lead to great success for Pittman and the fantasy GMs that decide to invest.

     

    Darnell Mooney, Bears

     

    Mooney, much like Pittman, has nearly zero competition for targets on his offense.  Unfortunately for Mooney, the Bears’ offense is much less prolific in comparison to the Colts.  If Justin Fields is able to take a step forward in the passing game, Mooney could sneak his way inside a top-12 ranking, but a top-20 ranking is a more comfortable expectation.  Now that Allen Robinson has moved on, Mooney should be able to eat.  In games without A-Rob last year, Mooney averaged nearly 10 targets and 80 yards per game.  If he is able to maintain numbers in that range this year, he will easily finish with over 1,000 yards and 100 catches, but the unknown about the Bears offense is where the touchdowns go because Mooney ranked 38th in red-zone targets amongst WRs last season.  The Bears did add several options to their wide receiver room, but none of them should make much, if any, noise or take away from Mooney’s production.

     

    Jerry Jeudy, Broncos

     

    With Russell Wilson now in town, Jeudy finally has the chance to take a massive step forward for his fantasy GMs.  Unfortunately Tim Patrick has already been ruled out for the season with a torn ACL, which will help Jeudy’s fantasy production.  The Broncos have an incredibly balanced attack, so Jeudy may be an inconsistent option, but he has the potential to have monster games and that is exactly what fantasy GMs should be targeting on draft night. Jeudy is one of the league’s premiere route runners and has the ability to separate from any defender. Coming off the board as WR25 in ADP, three slots behind running mate Courtland Sutton, Jeudy should be a PPR machine this year after a 10-game season where he racked up 84 targets that, due to tragic QB play, led to only 38 catches. With a massive upgrade under center, expect great things from Jeudy in 2022.

     

    Brandon Aiyuk, Niners

     

    Aiyuk has been the recipient of some very high praise during training camp thus far and should take a sizable step forward in his third year. With Trey Lance at the helm, the Niners offense should be faster-paced, hammering out more plays per game.  More plays leads to more fantasy points and touchdowns.  Aiyuk is a post-hype sleeper.  After an impressive rookie campaign where he averaged 15.3 points per game (PPR), there was a lot of excitement and expectations from fantasy GMs in his second year. Unfortunately, his sophomore season was not nearly as successful as expected, averaging only 9.9 points per game (PPR).  Aiyuk is the third option in the Niners offense, but Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have an extensive history of missing games due to injury.  Fantasy GMs who reached on Aiyuk last draft season were burned by him and will avoid him this year, causing his ADP to be lower than it should.  Don’t be scared to grab Aiyuk at his WR39 ADP in the seventh or eighth round as your WR4 or WR5.

     

    Chase Claypool, Steelers

     

    Much like Aiyuk, Claypool is another post-hype sleeper.  He had a monster rookie season, but due to the noodle-arm of Ben Roethlisberger, he was an absolute bust in his sophomore year.  No one wants to draft him this year, but the Steelers always seem to find a way to compete.  Claypool has big-play upside and can drop a 50-plus yard TD on any given play and that wins fantasy GMs their week.  He is screaming for positive touchdown regression after only finding paydirt twice last season on 105 targets. The self-proclaimed best WR in the league is not lacking confidence and he somehow is being drafted outside of the top-100 overall.  He is definitely worth a dart-throw for fantasy GMs who can afford to wait and see if he is able to produce like his rookie season, where he was the eighth rookie WR of all-time to find the endzone over 10 times.

     

    Van Jefferson, Rams

     

    Jefferson showed flashes of his game-breaking ability last year and ended with career highs in yards and touchdowns.  He is going to struggle for consistent production behind the powerhouse duo of Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson, but he will be the field stretcher in an incredibly strong offense, ranking 11th in average depth of target last season. Jefferson is a fantastic sleeper option who should return value on his WR67 ADP.

     

    K.J. Osborn, Vikings

     

    Osborn is the third option on one of the best offenses in the NFL.  With Justin Jefferson, a fellow third-year WR, and vet Adam Thielen ahead of him in the pecking order, Osborn is a sleeper option that can be scooped with the last pick in fantasy drafts.  If JJ or Thielen were to miss games due to injury, Osborn would step in and immediately become fantasy relevant.  Last season in seven of eight games where he had at least five targets, Osborn scored over 14 points per game in PPR formats.  In Weeks 13-17, he averaged over 12 points per game and six targets.  Fantasy GMs should lock Osborn in with their last pick in drafts this season.

     

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