Fantasy Football: RBs to Fade

  • We’ve already talked about running backs that have some major breakout potential, but not every back is going to meet their upside — or even baseline expectations. We’ve got a trio of running backs that fantasy managers might want to be cautious of as draft season draws near.

    Nick Chubb

    Nick Chubb comes in as one of the biggest RBs to fade this year during drafts because of the high likelihood of the Browns offense taking a massive step backwards. He is coming off the board as the RB8 while I have him ranked at RB17. The Browns sold the farm to trade for Deshaun Watson, losing their starting QB from the last four seasons, Baker Mayfield, in the process. Watson would make this offense flourish but he will miss at least the first six games with the potential of missing the entire season as the NFL is appealing the arbitrator’s ruling, pushing for an indefinite suspension as a result of his sexual assault charges.

    Chubb also has nearly no receiving upside on this offense as Kareem Hunt will be taking the bulk of that work alongside a chunk of the rushing game. Last season Chubb had a sad 6.5% target share in the passing attack, including fewer total targets than Hunt saw even though Hunt only played eight games. Chubb has only broken the 20-reception threshold once in his career. Generally speaking, when talented running backs have underwhelming play from their quarterback it leads to a very poor fantasy season.  This is a direct result of the offense struggling to move the ball and score points.  Last season when Chubb suited up without Mayfield, he produced single-digit points in both of those games. He has been a solid back-end RB1 throughout his career, with his best season being back in 2020 where he finished the RB7 in points per game in a much more potent offense than the Browns have now.

    With Jacoby Brissett leading the offense into battle, do not be surprised when Chubb fails to return the value of his ADP and players who are drafted behind him like Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne, James Conner or Leonard Fournette all finish higher in the end-of-season rankings.

    Ezekiel Elliott

    Much like Nick Chubb, Zeke has competition in the back field from a pass-catching specialist. Tony Pollard was targeted 130 times last season in comparison to the mere 62 targets that Elliott saw. Pollard is also an incredibly gifted runner, bursting onto the scene last year with 5.5 yards per carry, good for second highest in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, Zeke finished third last in elusive rating among qualified backs a year ago.  He also produced a career-low 13.9 carries and 58.9 yards per game, while his 6.1 yards per reception and his opportunity share were also bottom of his career. Consistently over the past four seasons, Zeke has continued to trend downward.

    The crazy thing about that trend is the age where RBs historically start to decline is when they turn 27, which Zeke will do before the season starts.  So if Zeke has already been declining from his 2000-plus career touches, how is it possible he returns any sort of fantasy-relevant season for his fantasy GMs?  If you drafted him last season, like myself, it was misery. Fantasy GMs had to pray he fell into the end zone, which he luckily did 10 times last year, but seven of those TDs came from inside the 10 yard line.  He is the sort of player where you are drafting his name and floor over true fantasy production potential and with touchdown regression in his forefront, he is a must-fade.  Stop pretending its 2016 when Zeke was still a dominant back and shift your focus to players like Breece Hall or Cam Akers, who you can draft later than Zeke but will end up with a more productive fantasy season.

    Antonio Gibson

    Antonio Gibson might be one of the easiest fades during drafts this year. Gibson has had his production capped the last two years due to J.D. McKissic, who led the NFL in targets in 2020 with 110 which led to 80 catches. He was top-4 in target share and yards per route run among running backs last year. As a result, McKissic has finished as a top-37 back the past two seasons, even while missing the last six games a year ago. Before his injury in Week 12, McKissic was the RB22 in PPR formats. Surprisingly, Gibson was a receiver in college and yet, for some reason, the Commanders refuse to utilize him in the passing game out of the backfield.

    He only finished as a top-24 back in half of his games last season and in three of those games McKissic was injured. Gibson has a decent floor but that doesn’t win weeks in fantasy football. Fantasy GMs need to draft players with the potential of high fantasy scoring ceilings. The Commanders also brought in Brian Robinson, who has tons of training camp hype surrounding him. The trio of backs will have a full fledged committee, similar to what the Patriots have deployed for a decade. Gibson is one of the few players that, regardless of round, fantasy GMs should not be drafting.  There are numerous other backs and wide receivers in his draft range that will be more productive this season. He has minimal upside on an offense that projects to take a step in the wrong direction.

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