Post All Star Bruski 150

  • By Aaron Bruski

    Time flies when you’re having fun and/or developing a brand new website.  If you’ve followed along my Twitter feed you probably could get a sense for guys I liked or didn’t like, but in reality I’ve had my head down with developers and meetings and more meetings and it’s been tough to get you guys the info you need.

    I figured a good way to kick this site off, however, would be to reset player expectations and evaluations in a post All Star Bruski 150.

    Editor’s Note: This was updated for the last time after the trade deadline at 11:30 a.m. ET on Friday, February 19.

    So let’s set some ground rules for how I did this and then get to the evaluating.  Also, we’ve developed a service that can get you closer to the fantasy information and advice you need without the hassle of hoping somebody will respond to your tweet or email.  It’s the Hoop Ball Fantasy Pro service and for the month of February we’re giving you a membership for half off for the entire life of the membership.  Use promo code EarlBarronTripleDouble and you’ll be locked in.

    So … ground rules:

    ♦ This is a Roto list and this time I don’t even pretend to mess around with 9-cat.  The reason being is that the preseason Bruski 150 takes about three months to do, with detailed analytics fitting into hand-created projections and it’s a summer thing.  So, I’m using valuations from the most awesome site Basketball Monster and then slotting guys in based on where I believe they’re heading statistically.  Adjusting for turnovers just wouldn’t make a lot of sense if I’m not actually projecting all of the stats, and because I’m launching a massive website it’s just not happening.

    ♦The Value column shows year-to-date (per game) z-scores from BBM. You’ll get a sense for how much I’m up or down on rest-of-season value with that column.

    ♦ 9-cat owners – you just want to assess if a given player has a turnover advantage or problem and slide them accordingly.

    ♦ Related: I really don’t like 9-cat formats.

    ♦ This list takes into account games played projections and injury risk but unlike the preseason Bruski 150 I’m not tied to it nearly as much.  There are some risk-reward plays and stashes that I’ve moved into places that ignore whatever injury risk or current injury they have.  In that sense, they have a power ranking style the season-long list tries to stay away from.

    ♦ Head-to-Head owners: You have to factor in your team build in any rankings and these are your baseline valuations from which you can do that.

    ♦ The trade deadline is coming and could completely wreck some of these rankings. Stay woke.

     

    B150 Value Team Name Notes
    1 1.73 GSW Stephen Curry Easy No. 1 selection and still has no known ceiling.
    2 1.19 OKC Kevin Durant Durant’s stat set is almost inpenetrable at No. 2.
    3 1.12 HOU James Harden Harden struggling, Westy peaking, Harden still winning
    4 1.11 OKC Russell Westbrook Quietly averaging 10.0 apg. So much for can’t pass.
    5 0.81 NOR Anthony Davis Down across the board, NO unhinged. All upside.
    6 0.88 TOR Kyle Lowry Minutes, shooting, steals all a bit high.
    7 0.80 SAS Kawhi Leonard 3PT/FT percentages a bit high, STLs a bit low.
    8 0.74 CLE LeBron James We might be looking at Miami LeBron under Lue.
    9 0.77 LAC Chris Paul His value actually dips as teammates get hurt.
    10 0.49 MIN Karl-Anthony Towns Should see anywhere between 2-5 extra mpg after break.
    11 0.71 WAS John Wall Might get a bit more efficient if Beal can hold up.
    12 0.67 GSW Draymond Green Night after night you can set it and forget it with Dray.
    13 -0.16 CLE Kyrie Irving No. 9 in 36.4 mpg last year. Pace could help.
    14 0.66 SAC DeMarcus Cousins Big men moving away from the hoop is bad for value.
    15 0.70 IND Paul George For all of his bluster and the leg issue, he’s stable.
    16 0.54 POR Damian Lillard CJM won’t eat on his dime all year. I think he improves.
    17 0.68 ATL Paul Millsap Many numbers a bit too high, wear and tear concerns.
    18 0.34 GSW Klay Thompson His steals number is about half what it should be.
    19 0.49 CHA Kemba Walker He’s probably a bit over his head production-wise.
    20 0.37 BOS Isaiah Thomas Check this All Star prediction from way back when.
    21 0.55 CHI Jimmy Butler I worry about all the minutes, but he could push upward.
    22 0.18 UTA Rudy Gobert Only going to get better as year goes on.
    23 0.51 MIA Hassan Whiteside Only concern – possible trade or tiptoeing before payday.
    24 0.43 SAC Rajon Rondo The only way he slides is if SAC realizes he’s fool’s gold.
    25 0.44 CHI Pau Gasol A lot of strange risks here, including a trade or injury.
    26 0.13 NYK Kristaps Porzingis Hard to project, just 28 mpg. Odds say he’s pointing up.
    27 0.30 ATL Al Horford His only risk – freak injury – which is sort of his thing.
    28 0.39 BKN Brook Lopez Could get better at FT%, but the elephant is injury risk.
    29 0.27 CLE Kevin Love Gave him a nudge for Lue/pace, go higher if you want.
    30 0.24 UTA Gordon Hayward Probably a shade or two below where he should be.
    31 0.23 SAC Rudy Gay Wide array of outcomes, even without a trade.
    32 0.20 MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo He’s in his improvement curve and loaded with upside.
    33 0.14 MIN Ricky Rubio His 35 percent field goal shooting can only go up.
    34 0.23 MIL Greg Monroe Nearly doubled his blocks from last year. A shade high.
    35 0.13 MIL Khris Middleton Two ways he can improve: FG% & STLs.
    36 0.19 TOR DeMar DeRozan A few conflicting indicators, but a very stable asset.
    37 0.21 ORL Nikola Vucevic Great year, but concerns over his defense in ‘reality.’
    38 0.26 NYK Carmelo Anthony More boarding/passing, injury risk looms large.
    39 0.04 ATL Jeff Teague All but 3P% is down. Huge bounceback potential.
    40 0.01 MEM Mike Conley Almost has to improve FG%. Also in contract year.
    41 -0.07 SAS LaMarcus Aldridge Has multiple categories (and MPG) that could improve.
    42 0.24 POR CJ McCollum It feels like his FG% should dip, but it might not.
    43 0.19 BOS Jae Crowder STLs might still be high. He’s sustainable, but peaking.
    44 0.08 DET Reggie Jackson REBs and especially ASTs are down. Likely to improve.
    45 -0.20 DEN Nikola Jokic Top-50 in 2016 in 23 mpg. This is a 25-26 mpg rank.
    46 -0.10 NOR Jrue Holiday Top-50 in 2016 in 30 mpg. A lot minus Tyreke.
    47 -0.11 MIN Gorgui Dieng No. 53 in 30 mpg last year. A similar jump is coming.
    48 -0.48 IND Myles Turner Top-40 (0.22V) last 9 (As of Thu), 30 MPG, #s definitely high.
    49 0.21 UTA Derrick Favors BLKs have shifted to STLs. His big concern is his hip.
    50 0.06 PHI Nerlens Noel A handful of ways he can improve. None are guaranteed.
    51 0.15 WAS Marcin Gortat Pretty close to true value, FT% is a bit high.
    52 0.14 CHA Nicolas Batum His numbers are up and he’ll play it safe with any injury.
    53 0.10 DEN Danilo Gallinari Career-high FTAs could regress. Still, he’s rolling.
    54 -0.20 MIA Goran Dragic Bosh news might help him the most. So would tanking.
    55 0.24 PHO Brandon Knight Seems to be on course to return in weeks, not months
    56 0.06 BKN Thaddeus Young Notoriously streaky, FG/FT% could go either way.
    57 0.05 OKC Serge Ibaka Yes, he could improve, but hard to say with confidence.
    58 0.00 NOR Ryan Anderson Lucked out at the deadline. Unlimited touches in NO
    59 -0.03 DET Tobias Harris Detroit should be more friendly for him.
    60 -0.01 ORL Victor Oladipo Skiles bringing in Jennings is not fun to think about.
    61 -0.02 PHI Robert Covington Could legitimately add 2-4 mpg, improve his FG%.
    62 0.08 IND Monta Ellis Maybe gets a bump in FG% due to low FGAs. Maybe.
    63 0.12 DAL Dirk Nowitzki Numbers are up, but sustainable. Days off the issue.
    64 0.38 LAC Blake Griffin A stasher’s paradise, once he returns it’s early rounds.
    65 -0.03 WAS Otto Porter Pretty maxed and dinged up, Morris hurts him a tad.
    66 0.02 DEN Will Barton %s highly questionable. But, room to grow MPG/DEF
    67 0.02 HOU Trevor Ariza Pretty solid valuation for Ariza right here.
    68 -0.49 SAS Danny Green Top-40 in 2015. T-100 in 2016 (24 MPG) at ~2015 %s
    69 -0.13 TOR Jonas Valanciunas %s highly likely to improve, yet to get his MPG bump.
    70 -0.11 LAC DeAndre Jordan STLs/REBs could go up, FTAs could go down, no BG.
    71 -0.05 DET Andre Drummond FT% *and* FG% has let owners down.
    72 -0.02 MIL Michael Carter-Williams Barring a major change in deployment this is his value.
    73 -0.03 IND George Hill 3P%, STLs a bit high. Minor durability concerns.
    74 0.25 MIA Chris Bosh A total guess given his medical situation.
    75 -0.41 MIN Zach LaVine Westbrook-light; Current value at 24 MPG. Big upside.
    76 -0.03 ATL Kent Bazemore FT% is high; among likely to take hit after ATL trade.
    77 -0.03 MIA Dwyane Wade Bosh out will help; but lead to more wear-and-tear.
    78 -0.30 LAL D’Angelo Russell Nowhere to go but up. 27 MPG on the season.
    79 -0.05 BOS Avery Bradley STLs a tad high, but % regressions have already hit.
    80 0.01 WAS Bradley Beal FG% regression coming. So many risks.
    81 -0.46 PHO Jon Leuer Top-80 with excess FG% (5%) at 26 MPG in DEC.
    82 -0.59 PHO Devin Booker A top-80 value in 34.4 MPG in 2016. Knight returning.
    83 -0.27 MIN Andrew Wiggins Could see incremental improvements across the board.
    84 -0.25 LAL Jordan Clarkson Amazingly stable, with probable USG% improvement.
    85 -0.17 PHI Jahlil Okafor Mild improvements should be hoped for, not counted on.
    86 -0.14 LAC JJ Redick Any added volume might get eaten by a dip in 3P%
    87 -0.14 CHA Marvin Williams If he can hold his 29 mpg, no glaring outliers to report.
    88 -0.04 SAS Tim Duncan Maybe could get more FGAs, but GPs the main issue.
    89 0.10 HOU Dwight Howard So much guh in Houston, and he’s in the middle of it.
    90 -0.17 UTA Rodney Hood His %s have held despite volume, but Burks looms.
    91 -0.13 NOR Eric Gordon FT% will fall, but driver’s seat role awaits. Injury risk.
    92 -0.08 DET Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Downward dips more likely than not. Groin issue?
    93 -0.28 SAC Darren Collison DEF numbers down, but everything else in line w/ MPG.
    94 -0.32 TOR DeMarre Carroll FG/FT% both ~10% down. How much can he get back?
    95 -0.31 DAL Wesley Matthews Improvement chances in virtually every category.
    96 -0.13 DAL Zaza Pachulia REBs/FTAs/MPG could all be heading down. Injury risk.
    97 -0.23 DEN Kenneth Faried FT% could regress upward, but MPG his biggest hurdle.
    98 -0.23 MEM Matt Barnes #s that could adjust both up and down, durability risk.
    99 -0.33 DAL Chandler Parsons Current value at 28 MPG, lots of ways to improve.
    100 -0.54 WAS Markieff Morris Top-75 upside and a decent floor; Wall his PG helps
    101 -0.09 DAL Deron Williams FT% is coming down, but that’s about it. Injury risk.
    102 -0.31 MEM Mario Chalmers Current value at 22.5 MPG. No Marc means more Mario.
    103 -0.59 PHO Alex Len Just 19 mpg this year. That’s gotta change, right?
    104 -0.51 SAC Willie Cauley-Stein Top-155 in 21 MPG with no outliers. Deserves 30 MPG.
    105 -0.29 BOS Marcus Smart Upticks in FG/3P% and ASTs may come. MPG? No.
    106 -0.23 POR Al-Farouq Aminu Activity #s a bit depressed, but his MPG isn’t improving.
    107 -0.28 DEN Gary Harris Asking a lot for his %s to hold up; role trending upward.
    108 -0.35 ATL Dennis Schroder No trade of Teague really hurt his upside.
    109 -0.32 ATL Kyle Korver A positive regression is in order. Just how much?
    110 -0.30 BOS Kelly Olynyk Multi-week shoulder injury killed his value.
    111 -0.28 CHI Nikola Mirotic Question is how much value he can make up upon return.
    112 -0.15 SAC Omri Casspi Has downward regressables and risks. SAC needs him.
    113 -0.33 NYK Robin Lopez Top-65 in 2016 in 27 MPG. Only outlier is high FG%.
    114 -0.25 GSW Andre Iguodala Not a lot of wiggle to his numbers.
    115 -0.19 LAL Lou Williams A lot of ways he could fall in the rankings.
    116 -0.71 MEM Brandan Wright He’s debuting after the break; hopefully he can hold up.
    117 -0.27 PHI Ish Smith Current numbers more likely to worsen than improve.
    118 -0.55 DEN Emmanuel Mudiay 30 MPG, 33% FGs. Rank reflect the value of a gamble.
    119 -0.32 CHA Al Jefferson MPG/REBs/FT% all stand to improve. A bucket of risk.
    120 -0.21 SAS Tony Parker Slight improvements possible, but GPs always a risk.
    121 -0.28 CLE JR Smith Maybe some slight slippage but his role is fairly stable.
    122 -0.46 HOU Clint Capela Current value at 21 MPG; I’ll rate him at 25 MPG here.
    123 -0.51 ORL Aaron Gordon Top-185 in 2016 (26 MPG), with low sample of DEF/FT%.
    124 -0.55 POR Meyers Leonard Assumes mild upticks and jump from 24 to 26 MPG.
    125 -0.39 CHA Jeremy Lamb MKG for Lee swap; Current value at 21.5 MPG = upside.
    126 -0.28 GSW Harrison Barnes Barring an injury ahead of him, hard to see value change.
    127 -0.30 MEM Zach Randolph Maybe has one last kick, Memphis will need it.
    128 -0.34 BOS Jared Sullinger At 23.4 MPG and lower %s, he can only go up.
    129 -0.27 POR Mason Plumlee %s are slippery but might tilt upward. Stable role.
    130 -0.41 MIL Jabari Parker He will improve, but he won’t catch up to name value.
    131 -0.13 ORL Evan Fournier Skiles bringing in Jennings is not fun to think about.
    132 -0.34 OKC Enes Kanter Only an injury can help him, but he’s humming along.
    133 -0.26 BOS Amir Johnson Numbers are mostly stable, but as beat up as anybody.
    134 -0.28 GSW Andrew Bogut When on the court he’ll give you solid low-end numbers.
    135 -0.34 BOS Evan Turner Not a lot of variance to his numbers. Safer projection.
    136 -0.39 CHI Taj Gibson DEF/MPG a decent chance to improve for rest of year.
    137 -0.64 MIA Justise Winslow Pure flier material and that’s it.
    138 -0.29 HOU Patrick Beverley If anything his shooting slides a bit. Role not at risk.
    139 -0.36 IND CJ Miles Could improve FG%; Current 25.5 MPG value stable.
    140 -0.40 MEM Courtney Lee Same situation in MEM as CHA; a chance to jumpstart.
    141 -0.33 ORL Elfrid Payton Skiles bringing in Jennings is not fun to think about.
    142 -0.34 CHA Jeremy Lin Lin’s MPG at its ceiling and he’s always dinged up.
    143 -0.47 MIL John Henson Current value at 17 MPG. Chained to bench, all upside.
    144 -0.65 NOR Norris Cole This is his absolute ceiling with maxed minutes.
    145 -0.43 LAL Julius Randle MPG and productivity should increase, but not enough.
    146 -0.27 IND Ian Mahinmi Not a great sign that Myles Turner is ready for the lights.
    147 -0.43 BKN Shane Larkin Good value at 20 MPG this year; but blowing opportunity
    148 -0.41 PHI Jerami Grant 3P% can rise and so could his MPG, but hard to bet on.
    149 -0.43 PHO PJ Tucker Eligible for a FG% spike and in line for mpg. PHO tho.
    150 -0.55 UTA Alec Burks Lacks fantasy stat-set to make up for injury, Hood.
    151 -0.32 PHI TJ McConnell Hard to project but current value at just 20.9 MPG.
    152 -0.35 LAL Kobe Bryant Will be very annoying to own due to games missed.
    153 -0.42 CHA Cody Zeller Nice work this year; Current value at 25 MPG accurate.
    154 -0.79 CHI Bobby Portis It hasn’t clicked, but the Bulls really need it to.
    155 -1.02 DEN Jusuf Nurkic Has the fantasy stat set, just he’s well behind Jokic.
    156 -0.98 NYK Jerian Grant Maybe Rambis cuts the kids loose. We’ll see.
    157 -0.67 DET Stanley Johnson Game doesn’t translate yet to fantasy, nice talent.
    158 -0.51 NYK Langston Galloway See Grant, Jerian.
    159 -0.74 OKC Cameron Payne A stat magnet and good handcuff for Westbrook.

    I lied. There were 159. Enjoy.

    February 16, 2016, 6:18 am
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Ash

definitely selling kevin love at that price. outside the top 50 per-game over the last two months

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Ash

would be interested to know why you’ve faded dieng so much in this update too – the guys hitting your pre-season projections now he’s starting

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Aaron Bruski

Mostly because I don’t trust Mitchell. A lot of his strength in my original projections was his games played factor, too, and so his per-game was a little bit lower than it might have seemed with the high ranking. 30 game sample or so and the games played factor is reduced. AB

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Havre

But are you really saying I should drop J Green for Leuer?

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Aaron Bruski

You should check out our Pro Service and use the free trial but since we’re in the early days here – yes, that’s definitely what I’d have you do. Good luck!

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Havre

Early days 2 for 1? Fournier above both of them?

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Aaron Bruski

Not sure I follow what you’re saying?

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Havre

Fournier over Leuer? He’s supposed to be starting SF still, been hot lately.

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Aaron Bruski

I think you mean Leuer over Fournier and on Fournier – I’m scared of what Skiles is capable of there with all the new pieces. For Leuer – it’s a risk that he emerges as the guy but that’s where I’d put him if I drafted today.

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