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February 8, 2018, 7:31 pm
Takes are flying left and right about who the big winners and losers are after a busy trade deadline day (otherwise known as NBA junkie Christmas). Most of the coverage is focused on the big name players that have been moved, but those big moves send ripples all the way down the depth chart. I’ll keep the preamble short since this is going to be a long one, but for any Deep League Digging newcomers, I am generally looking at players that are less than 5% owned. That said, that is expanded out to roughly 10-15% for the purpose of discussion in this article.
Without further ado… here is a chronological look at what went down since last Thursday.
Pelicans Acquire Nikola Mirotic
This is old news at this point, but the New Orleans Pelicans acquired Nikola Mirotic and a second-round pick last week in exchange for Omer Asik, Tony Allen, Jameer Nelson and a first-rounder. On the Bulls side of things, Tony Allen is likely to bought out and sign with a contender. The Thunder appear to be one of the leading candidates to land the veteran wing defender. If he is signed by the Thunder, and fully recovered from the left fibula fracture that has kept him sidelined since early December, he could step into a 20-25 minute role and have back-end appeal as a steals specialist in 16-team leagues – but that is probably the best-case scenario. Asik could see a slight uptick in playing time (from none) if the Bulls get hit with injuries, but that doesn’t even put him on the 30-team league radar. Nelson is likely to be dealt in another package at the deadline (which we’ll get to later), so it is hard to pin-down his value until we see where he lands.
Moving to the New Orleans side of the deal. After DeMarcus Cousins went down, it appeared that Darius Miller, Dante Cunningham and Cheick Diallo were all in line to see more run. The addition of Mirotic changes the equation – and caps the ceiling for Miller and Cunningham especially. Miller moves from a strong add candidate to back-end roster worthy in 16-team leagues, while Cunningham is relegated to 30-team league only status (more on him later as well). I’m most interested in Diallo, who has seen 15 minutes in each of the Pelicans’ last three games after being out of the rotation all season. He probably doesn’t step into a role much larger than 15-20 minutes without more injuries, but his per-minute production is tempting enough to warrant a look in 20-team leagues and watch list status in shallower formats.
Tyler Zeller moves to the Bucks
The Brooklyn Nets agreed to move Tyler Zeller to the Bucks in exchange for Rashad Vaughn and a second-round pick. Rashad Vaughn ended up being flipped in a deal closer to the deadline that is covered below. Zeller may actually stand to see a very slight increase in production in Milwaukee now that he has been removed from the shadow of Jarrett Allen and Jahlil Okafor. He now has to contend with John Henson and Thon Maker, so don’t expect much of a bump, but he could carve out enough of a role to hold value in 30-team leagues.
As for the surrounding cast of characters in Brooklyn and Milwaukee, not much changes. Thon Maker loses a bit of his appeal. He is fine to hold on upside if your team is set, but there are probably better options out there in leagues shallower than 18-teams. Jarrett Allen had already seized the starting center job, and remains must-own in all deep-leagues. Prior to the trade, Okafor had supplanted Zeller on the depth chart, but is still fighting for reserve minutes with Quincy Acy. Okafor should see extra run while Acy is sidelined with a finger injury, but unless Acy misses significant time they both a relegated to super deep leagues (20-team leagues and larger). It seems like they may be locked in a timeshare for the foreseeable future, but are both worth owning in 20-team leagues and larger. Keep Okafor on your watch list in shallower formats the event he wins the backup job outright, but it doesn’t seem to be in the cards at the moment.
Willy Hernangomez to the Hornets
The New York Knicks are parting ways with Willy Hernangomez in exchange for Johnny O’Bryant and two second-round picks. Without a Dwight Howard trade, or some other move that frees up the frontcourt logjam, things should remain relatively the same in Charlotte. Frank Kaminsky, Cody Zeller and Willy Hernangomez will all be fighting for reserve minutes behind Dwight Howard. Kaminsky is likely already owned in most deep leagues, and I’m not entirely sure why. With Zeller back, he will likely struggle to produce back-end value in 16-team leagues. Zeller is a solid per minute producer, so even in a reserve role he is worth owning as a back-end source of rebounds and blocks in 16-team leagues. If you’ve held Hernangomez all season, there is no reason to change that now, but don’t rush out to the wire to grab him because of the trade.
Johnny O’Bryant is expected to be waived by the Knicks after the trade is finalized. He might have the possibility of registering the slightest blip on the 30-team league radar if signed by another team, but that is going to be heavily dependent on situation. Kyle O’Quinn may see a few extra minutes, but that is more due to the news that Kristaps Porzingis is done for the year. Hernangomez was already behind him on the depth chart. O’Quinn is a strong per minute fantasy producer, posting top-150 value in just under 17 minutes per game, so a few extra minutes could actually make a relatively significant difference in his value. He should probably be owned in 16-team leagues.
Bulls send Jameer Nelson for Pistons’ Willie Reed
In a move that was somewhat expected, the Pistons sent Willie Reed to the Bulls in exchange for Jameer Nelson. Willie Reed is expected to be waived, but he can produce in the right role, so keep an eye on his landing spot if he is signed elsewhere.
Jameer Nelson will probably immediately assume the backup point guard role behind Ish Smith. He may have some decent short-term value while Reggie Jackson remains injured and slides Smith and Jameer a slot down the depth chart. Owners could add speculatively in 20-team leagues and larger, but know that the value will be short lived. Langston Galloway and Dwight Buycks have been getting some time at the one while Jackson has been injured, so Nelson probably hurts both of them a bit. Galloway is more of a threes streamer in 16-team leagues and Buycks may fall out of the rotation entirely soon with Jackson back.
Cavaliers lose Isaiah Thomas, Channing Frye, Jae Crowder, Iman Shumpert, Derrick Rose and acquire Larry Nance Jr., Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, George Hill.
To say the Cavaliers were busy today would be a massive understatement. To make this a bit easier to read, I’ll cover the fallout for the Cavaliers first, then cover the situation on each of the teams that they engaged in trades today separately.
 Despite the Cavaliers trading away half of their roster, the implications for deep league owners are actually fairly negligible. Before the trade, Channing Frye, J.R. Smith and Jeff Green were the only non-standard league players worth owning outside of deep dynasty formats (shout out Ante Zizic and Cedi Osman).
Jeff Green’s outlook improves slightly with Jae Crowder gone, though Larry Nance Jr. will soak up a lot of those minutes. We could see LeBron James start at the four on the new-look Cavaliers, making Green a logical choice to start at the three. Starting or not, Green should see a few extra minutes and should have back end 16-team league value despite his stat set issues. J.R. Smith’s value declines as he may be usurped by Rodney Hood in the starting lineup. He probably slips from fringe 16-team rosterable to 3-point streamer. He still should be owned in larger leagues.
Lakers trade Larry Nance Jr., Jordan Clarkson and receive Isaiah Thomas, Channing Frye
This trade probably does it for Channing Frye’s brief run of increased relevance in deep leagues. There are just too many better (and far younger) options ahead of him on a team that is making moves, but still without question rebuilding. Ivica Zubac is worth a speculative add in 18-team leagues and larger on the potential that he wins the backup center job that Nance’s departure has left vacant.
Josh Hart should be held. He has been electric in his last three games, but the injury to Lonzo Ball is the primary reason he is seeing these minutes. Isaiah Thomas will be filling the minutes that Clarkson’s departure opened, so his situation shouldn’t change much while Ball is out. Expect his value to drop significantly when Ball is healthy.
Jazz Send Rodney Hood, Joe Johnson, receive Derrick Rose, Jae Crowder
Derrick Rose is expected to be released by the Jazz. He hasn’t been rosterable this season outside of 30-team leagues, so he would need a perfect landing spot to warrant the slightest consideration in 16-team leagues.
Royce O’Neale is worth a flier in all deep-leagues. He has been producing at a top-175 level over the past month and is stat set is so well-rounded. Jae Crowder’s arrival will probably take some minutes away from him, but not enough to negate the bump he might see from Hood and Johnson departing.
Kings trade George Hill, acquire Joe Johnson, Iman Shumpert
Joe Johnson will suit up for the Kings, but it is hard to say for how long. He is apparently seeking a buy-out in the hope of joining a contender. Even if he remains on the team, his value doesn’t change much. Iman Shumpert is in a similar situation regarding a buyout. His value will probably take a hit as the Kings would theoretically look to continue developing Bogdan Bogdanovic and Buddy Hield ahead of him and may continue to give Garrett Temple his share of action. Frank Mason is still injured, but move appears to make him make him the default backup point guard when healthy. He is worth a look in 20-team leagues and larger.
Grizzlies Trade James Ennis for Pistons’ Brice Johnson
The Grizzlies sent James Ennis to Detroit in return for Brice Johnson. Ennis was on a nice run of borderline standard league value prior to a calf injury that kept him sidelined for the second half of January. The Pistons are a solid landing spot for Ennis, as they need help on the wing behind Stanley Johnson. He was seeing just over 20 minutes per game with the Grizzlies. That could move closer to 25 minutes per game in Detroit – enough to justify a speculative add if you have the room in 16-team leagues.
Despite already starting, Dillon Brooks should probably see a few extra minutes come his way and should be owned in all deep leagues. Wayne Selden Jr. is in a severe shooting slump (25-percent over his last four games), but he should get a few extra shots without Ennis in the rotation. He is worth a look in 18-team leagues and larger. Brice Johnson joins a crowded big man situation in Memphis. He will probably be buried on the depth chart behind JaMychal Green, Chandler Parsons (when healthy), Jarell Martin, Deyonta Davis, Brandan Wright and, oh yeah, Marc Gasol. Despite the busy frontcourt, Johnson is intriguing for one reason – youth. If the Grizzlies embrace a full-on tank after their most recent slide, players like Davis, Martin and Brice Johnson could see extended run. Johnson isn’t worth owning in 30-team leagues at the moment, but put him on your watch list. Martin is already coming close to putting up back-end 16-team league value and is worth a hard look in all deep leagues. Deyonta Davis has big upside, and is worth a speculative look when healthy (he is currently out with knee soreness).
Luke Babbitt heads to Miami in exchange for Okaro White
Luke Babbitt wasn’t doing much to warrant consideration beyond 30-team leagues or streaming when he cracked the lineup, but this should hurt him further. The rotation is crowded in Miami, and Babbitt probably won’t see many rotation minutes.
Okaro White was traded to the Hawks, but is expected to be waived. He hasn’t done anything to warrant consideration outside of 30-team dynasty leagues and hasn’t played at all this season thanks to a foot fracture, so even if he is re-signed, that is unlikely to change.
Dwyane Wade Returns to Miami
This trade probably hurts Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington a bit, but they are certifiably standard league players. Despite the drama, storylines and narrative surrounding this deal, there is pretty much nothing to talk about from a deep league fantasy value perspective. The only thing to note is that a high usage player like Wade coming off the bench (I presume that will be the case) could take shots away from someone like Bam Adebayo. His usage may dip, but his value doesn’t really come from usage, so he should remain a solid back end value in 16-team leagues.
Kings and Raptors Swap Malachi Richardson and Bruno Caboclo
Bruno Caboclo has only played seven NBA minutes this entire season. There is a chance he gets a bit of run with the Kings down the stretch as they look to see what they have in the Brazilian, but even in 30-team leagues, it could be tough to justify more than a very speculative add. This does give him a slight boost in super deep dynasty formats. He is only 22, and fits the timeline of the rebuilding Kings far better than the playoff-bound Raptors. Even if it doesn’t happen this year, he could develop into a passable rotation asset in Sacramento.
Malachi Richardson has also seen very little run this season before the trade. His main value is as a floor spacer, but that alone won’t bump him up ahead of C.J. Miles or Norman Powell. He is fine to hold on potential in 30-team leagues, but don’t expect much change in production.
Three-Team Trade: Mavericks get Doug McDermott; Knicks acquire Emmanuel Mudiay; Nuggets get Devin Harris
Doug McDermott has been more of a 30-team player so far this season with streaming appeal in shallower formats, and that shouldn’t really change. His minutes should remain about the same as he is behind Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews in Dallas.
Devin Harris heads to Denver and should see an increased role as the de-facto backup to Jamal Murray at the one. He is averaging 18 minutes per game this season, that stands to see a slight increase in Denver – a team without many other options at the point. He is worth a speculative add in 20-team leagues, and can have some back end appeal as a three and D option in shallower formats. The guard situation in Dallas should remain about the same otherwise with J.J. Barea getting only the slightest bump up in value.
Mudiay gets a slight upgrade in New York, but the guard rotation is too crowded already to move him beyond flyer territory in 20-team leagues and shallower. He should probably be owned in anything larger, but don’t expect a huge bump. This does complicate things for rookie guard Frank Ntilikina, the presumed heir to the point guard throne in the big apple. It is hard to say he that loses too much value until we see how the rotation shakes out after a few games. Hold Ntilikina if you own him. The same can be said for Trey Burke.
Blazers send Noah Vonleh to Bulls for rights to Milocan Rakovic
There isn’t much to see here as this deal was more about the Blazers shedding some salary. Noah Vonleh was hardly in the rotation in Portland, and now he joins a crowded Bulls frontcourt where he will suit up behind Lauri Markkanen and Bobby Portis. It is hard to imagine his trajectory changing much from this move, but if he does settle into consistent minutes, keep him in mind as a streamer for rebounds in shallower formats and a speculative add in 20-team leagues and larger.
Pelicans send Dante Cunningham for Nets’ Rashad Vaughn
Rashad Vaughn was hardly worth owning outside of 30-team dynasty leagues (he is still only 21 years old) and that will likely continue to be the case in New Orleans. He is now behind Ian Clark, Jrue Holiday and (presumably) DeAndre Liggins and probably won’t see the floor much. Dante Cunningham might get a slight bump up with this deal, as the Nets are pretty thin at the four with only Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and DeMarre Carroll logging serious minutes at the position this season. It doesn’t move the needle enough though to warrant anything more than watch list consideration in 20-team leagues or less. He should probably already be owned in larger formats. Quincy Acy has quietly been putting up top-200 value over the past two weeks. That was not going to continue with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson back in the lineup, but the addition of Cunningham does hurt him slightly. He still should be owned in 20-team leagues and larger.
Suns Acquire Elfrid Payton
The Suns acquired Elfrid Payton from the Magic in exchange for a second-round pick. Out of the gate, let’s be clear that this is a run, don’t walk, moment to grab D.J. Augustin in deep leagues. He takes over the starting point guard role with the Magic and is now even making blips on the standard league radar. Shelvin Mack was already playing well over the past week and will now assume backup duty at the one. He is not quite must-own, but is well worth a speculative add in all deep leagues. On the Phoenix side of things, this probably spells the end for Tyler Ulis in anything smaller than 20-team leagues. Josh Gray is on a 10-day contract, but has seen big minutes since signing with the Suns. He is worth watching in 30-team leagues, but this move significantly decreases his appeal.
Phew – what a day. That’s all I have in me for this week, but as always, feel free to reach out on twitter with any questions or thoughts: @z_bodhane
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