We have come to the point in the NBA season where there isn’t really anybody playing NBA who hasn’t been playing the entire season.  Most people who wanted to try out NBA DFS have come and gone and only the dedicated and determined remain.  At this point, it is imperative for us to try to find the edge in roster construction.  On a small two game slate with only four teams to choose players from this is a difficult task.  We will need to stack a couple teams and hope for the best result possible.

The Boston Celtics are currently -5.5 favorites over the visiting Washington Wizards.  The 218.5 point game total is 12 points higher than the Golden State Warriors vs. the Utah Jazz total which currently sits at 208.5 points.  When we are looking at these lines and taking into consideration the pace of play, there are a few standout picks that appear to be strong choices to build a lineup around. I am going to break down the building blocks for what I think will be the low-owned core for tonight’s slate.

Jazz @ Warriors

The Utah Jazz will be playing at a much higher pace of play for this game at the Warriors.  An uptick in pace of play means more possessions for the Jazz and more scoring opportunities.  When a lot of DFS players will be on the Warriors, a savvy player will be investing into the Jazz players for this match-up.  The Jazz will have a lower ownership, a higher pace of play, they are projected for the lowest team total on the entire slate with 96.5 points, and their offense runs through a few select pieces that are easy to identify.  These are excellent reasons for selecting Jazz players before you build any other part of your lineup.

The first Jazz player I want to lock in will be George Hill.  He has excelled in pace-up games for the Jazz this season and has a strong opportunity today with a projected +3.5 possessions for this game.  That might not sound like a lot but if they end up with four or more possessions he could rack up four more points and a couple of assists which is another seven fantasy points.  That is a significant swing.

Joe Ingles and Gordon Hayward are the next two Jazz players that I will lock in.  They are both reasonably priced on Fanduel and allow us to pay up for a couple of our targeted studs that we will discuss later.  Ingles had a great series against the Clippers and did a nice job providing all-around statistics, which is a major plus for playoff DFS.  We want guys who can score in bunches, but if that isn’t a viable option at an affordable price then we absolutely want to try to select players who can score us fantasy points without actually having to score the basketball.  This allows us to celebrate like madmen when the non-scorer, like Joe Ingles, scores 12 real life points in Game 7 against the Clippers – bumping his Fanduel total all the way up to 28 points in the process.

Gordon Hayward played extensive minutes the entire series against the Clippers and really shined, averaging almost 40 Fanduel points over the seven game series.  He will be relied on to score the basketball in bunches against the Warriors.  On Draftkings he’s a great choice simply because they’ll need to be able to hit three-pointers to keep pace with the Warriors and Hayward was shooting about eight threes per game against the Clippers.  He might be asked to shoot more than that against the Warriors which will allow you to rack up the three-point bonus on the DK format.

Rudy Gobert is being mentioned last but it is certainly not because I like him the least.  Gobert might be the best play on the entire slate tonight as I think he will be under-owned against the Warriors.  Everyone in the world knows the Warriors play fast and generally go pretty small on the court with Draymond Green getting a ton of minutes at center.  This might lead a lot of people to wonder just how much playing time Gobert will get or how effective he will be.  I happen to be on the other end of the spectrum and believe the Jazz will try to control the pace of play by feeding it to Gobert down low and hope that he can bully his way to the basket.  This might even force the Warriors to get into foul trouble and take Draymond off the court with a quick two or three fouls in the first half.  That is my game theory for tonight and I am 100 percent off of Draymond Green for that specific reason.  I really think Gobert is going to be the reason the Jazz have a chance to win tonight.

Wizards @ Celtics

As far as the Celtics and Wizards game I want you to implore the game theory aspect we have discussed in the past few weeks and theorize the flow of the game and what the possible outcomes will be.  I don’t think what I have laid out for you will be a popular approach, heck, some might say I could be leading you astray.  This is the playoffs, anything can happen, and when 99 percent of the NBA DFS crowd still playing are pro’s and high-volume players, it takes some serious game theorizing to find your edge.

I wish you the best of luck tonight and hope to see you at the top of the leader boards.  You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS and I hope to hear about your victories!